Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.854932e-05 0.000094 0.000110 0.000128 0.000149 0.000171 0.000197
2025-02-02 5.989416e-05 0.000080 0.000103 0.000131 0.000164 0.000201 0.000245
2025-02-09 4.842077e-05 0.000070 0.000096 0.000130 0.000170 0.000217 0.000274
2025-02-16 4.167851e-05 0.000065 0.000095 0.000134 0.000183 0.000241 0.000314
2025-02-23 3.561990e-05 0.000060 0.000092 0.000135 0.000191 0.000258 0.000344
2025-03-02 2.816646e-05 0.000052 0.000084 0.000130 0.000190 0.000265 0.000362
2025-03-09 2.269293e-05 0.000045 0.000078 0.000126 0.000191 0.000272 0.000379
2025-03-16 1.898371e-05 0.000041 0.000075 0.000125 0.000195 0.000284 0.000403
2025-03-23 1.630770e-05 0.000038 0.000073 0.000126 0.000200 0.000298 0.000429
2025-03-30 1.359165e-05 0.000035 0.000069 0.000124 0.000203 0.000308 0.000450
2025-04-06 1.088447e-05 0.000031 0.000065 0.000121 0.000203 0.000313 0.000465
2025-04-13 9.215459e-06 0.000028 0.000063 0.000121 0.000208 0.000325 0.000489
2025-04-20 6.591885e-06 0.000024 0.000057 0.000115 0.000205 0.000328 0.000502
2025-04-27 5.387804e-06 0.000022 0.000056 0.000117 0.000212 0.000346 0.000536
2025-05-04 4.169796e-06 0.000020 0.000053 0.000116 0.000216 0.000358 0.000563
2025-05-11 3.595893e-06 0.000019 0.000054 0.000120 0.000227 0.000380 0.000603
2025-05-18 2.899836e-06 0.000018 0.000053 0.000121 0.000234 0.000397 0.000636
2025-05-25 1.912605e-06 0.000015 0.000048 0.000116 0.000231 0.000399 0.000649
2025-06-01 1.259352e-06 0.000013 0.000045 0.000112 0.000229 0.000404 0.000665
2025-06-08 8.795384e-07 0.000011 0.000043 0.000112 0.000232 0.000415 0.000690
2025-06-15 6.378259e-07 0.000010 0.000042 0.000112 0.000238 0.000429 0.000720
2025-06-22 4.096367e-07 0.000009 0.000040 0.000111 0.000240 0.000439 0.000744
2025-06-29 2.178203e-07 0.000008 0.000037 0.000108 0.000239 0.000444 0.000759